CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-04-30T12:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-04-30T12:38ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45934/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide and slow (<250 km/s) CME seen to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and to the southeast more brightly and prominently in STEREO A COR2; the source is a likely instability below Active Regions 14427/14428 (~S30), with a slowly varying dimming signature starting after 2026-04-30T10:00Z best viewed in SDO AIA composite imagery, particularly the 304/211/171 Angstrom imager. CME arrival characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 4 to 8 nT near 2026-05-04T04:10Z, a slow gradual rise to above 10 nT, and separation in magnetic field components after 2026-05-04T15:00Z until approximately 2026-05-06T04:00Z. Enhancements in solar wind density and small increases and decreases in velocity and temperature, respectively, were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-04T04:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-05T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a4b1 Ejecta settings d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrzqs cormode: single Modeling indicates the potential for relatively high solar wind particle densities with any arrival, suggesting (with low confidence) that the storm could overperform predicted/modeled geomagnetic parameters. Link to 1-CME simulation page: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45939/1Lead Time: 81.22 hour(s)
Difference: -25.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-30T18:57Z
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